Kevin Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole address on Friday. The question is not whether he sounds hawkish or dovish, but whether a market trained on forward guidance can price September without it.
Breadth without Conviction
The equal-weighted S&P is beating the cap-weighted index and every sector saw upward revisions. But is capital moving into other sectors because investors like them, or because they ran out of room in the one they prefer?
One Day of Relief: Why the Treasury Could Not Hold the Long End
Washington doubled its long-end buybacks last week and thirty-year yields fell sharply. They had recovered the entire move within a day.
Why Funflation May Not Be Inflation
Entertainment prices are rising faster than almost anything else. Much of what is being measured may not be inflation in any useful sense.
Acquisition Currency: What the Largest Defence IPO Was Actually For
CSG's Amsterdam listing in January was the biggest defence flotation on record. Most of the money raised did not go to the company.
The Cost of Saying It Depends
The Bank of England spent the spring trying to communicate conditionally about an energy shock. The gilt market heard something simpler.